Future Trends OCEAN Must Track
OCEAN faces environmental rules, tax digitalization, customs reform, and geopolitical shifts. Staying ahead is no longer optional argues Victor Aguilera
Chair of OCEAN's Excise expert group, Victor Aguilera, argues that in OCEAN' 50th anniversary, European ship suppliers face rising pressure from environmental rules, tax digitalization, and customs reform, reshaping costs and operations. Heading into the neyt 50 years, OCEAN must guide members, harmonize compliance, and influence policymakers to ensure sector competitiveness. At the same time, geopolitical shifts and security concerns demand proactive engagement to protect Europe’s strategic trade interests.
A Sector Under Pressure, an Association at the Center
European maritime suppliers operate in a constant state of tension between regulation, competitiveness, and geopolitical uncertainty. What was once a relatively stable activity linked mainly to trade flows and port operations has now become a strategic sector exposed to environmental ambition, fiscal reform, digital control, and security considerations. In this evolving landscape, OCEAN stands at the center of the debate, called upon to anticipate trends, defend its members, and shape the dialogue between industry and institutions.
Environmental Policies: The New Regulatory Backbone
Environmental policy is no longer a parallel consideration—it has become a structural pillar of European regulation. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) signal the direction Brussels has chosen. CBAM, initially limited in scope, is widely expected to expand to additional categories of goods. For maritime suppliers, this will mean higher compliance costs, greater data-reporting obligations, and increased exposure to carbon accounting requirements. The impact is not theoretical: fuels, materials, and supplies delivered to vessels may face stricter scrutiny, affecting pricing, logistics, and contractual relations.
The EUDR presents a different but equally complex challenge. While its environmental objective is broadly supported, implementation raises serious practical questions. Traceability requirements, documentation burdens, and uneven administrative capacity across Member States risk creating uncertainty and legal fragmentation.
OCEAN’s role must go beyond representation. The association must act as a pedagogical intermediary: explaining to European legislators how maritime supply chains function, highlighting risks of disproportionate or poorly calibrated rules, and supporting suppliers by translating legal texts into operational guidance. By aligning interpretations and leveraging national and sectoral associations, OCEAN can ensure consistent application across Europe.
Excise Duties: A Silent but Strategic Battlefield
Excise duties may lack the visibility of environmental policies, but for maritime suppliers they remain decisive. Changes in excise duty regimes can quickly alter cost structures and competitive balances. Future legislative initiatives must focus on simplification and predictability. Overly restrictive or fragmented rules risk pushing legitimate activity away from EU ports toward third-country hubs with lighter regulatory frameworks. OCEAN’s task is to defend a regulatory approach that safeguards fiscal interests without undermining competitiveness or distorting the internal market.
Tax Digitalization and VAT: Journalism of Control
The digitalization of taxation, particularly VAT, reflects a broader trend: a shift from ex-post control to real-time monitoring. For suppliers, this means new reporting systems, tighter deadlines, and increased transparency. Digitalization is not only a constraint. If properly designed, it can reduce administrative duplication, increase legal certainty, and streamline cross-border operations. OCEAN should act as a proactive interlocutor, advocating for harmonized digital standards and ensuring technological progress does not translate into disproportionate compliance costs.
Union Customs Code Reform: Data Takes the Helm
The Union Customs Code reform represents one of the most far-reaching changes for maritime suppliers. The transition to a data-driven customs environment will redefine how declarations are made, validated, and controlled. This shift promises faster clearance and greater efficiency but also places new demands on suppliers’ systems and data quality. The risk lies in fragmentation: divergent national interpretations could undermine the efficiencies the reform seeks.
For OCEAN, harmonized application of European centralized clearance is a priority. A single market cannot function with 27 different operational realities. Consistency is key. The “Trust and Check” concept further complicates the picture. While intended to facilitate compliant operators, it risks creating a two-speed Europe. OCEAN must ensure Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) status remains meaningful, with benefits that extend beyond current offerings rather than simply redistributing existing advantages.
Security and Eastern Europe: From Commerce to Resilience
Instability in Eastern Europe has brought security considerations into daily operations. Maritime suppliers are essential to logistical continuity, fleet readiness, and economic resilience. OCEAN must ensure this role is recognized at the European level and engage with institutions such as the European Defence Agency, the EU Military Committee, and the European External Action Service. Coordination, information-sharing, and structured dialogue will be critical during periods of heightened geopolitical risk.
Geopolitical Shifts: Values Under Pressure
Broader geopolitical trends are reshaping Europe’s strategic environment. The rise of nationalist governments—often skeptical or hostile toward European integration—signals potential weakening of common policies.
For OCEAN in 2026, this represents a dual challenge. The association must adapt to new political realities, increasing its capacity for dialogue and influence, while remaining anchored to the EU’s founding values: cooperation, freedom, and respect for diversity. These principles have enabled Europe to become the world’s largest trading bloc, accounting for 15.8% of global trade in 2024, and the second-largest economy in nominal terms.
In defending its members, OCEAN also defends this European model—one based on openness, shared rules, and collective strength.
Happy 50th Birthday OCEAN
